Scopes

Independent research on prediction markets

How prediction markets price risk, measured.

Scopes studies two questions. How do venue prices behave against independent fair value? And how do Kalshi, Polymarket and the other venues we track compare with each other and with how events actually resolve? Every price is timestamped, and every result is published, including the ones where our own benchmark lost.

Research led by Jon Shields, CFA

Read the research →See the record →

Alaska Senate 2026

Republican

Kalshi
31.5%
Polymarket
29.5%
Scopes Fair Value74.8%
as of 26h ago
Same event. Every venue. One independent fair value.

Latest research

All research →

Everyone quotes the odds. We keep score.

Across 609 resolved divergences, the market was right 55.5% of the time, the Scopes Fair Value the other 44.5%.

The Scopes Fair Value is our independent estimate of the odds; a divergence is where it parts from the market price.

Collecting 434,575 snapshots since July 2026.

609 divergences resolved.

When market price and Scopes Fair Value disagreed:

Market right · 338Fair value right · 271
Statistically significant at the 95% level (binomial test, n = 609) What does this split mean? →See the record →

Methodology: the record holds 872 resolved flags, scored as 609 distinct events. Set aside from scoring: Sports 226, energy 20, stocks 17. How this number is computed →

conflicts · versioned · append-only · archived · verifiable · last ingest 2h ago

Every flagged divergence carries independent reads, model and human, recorded before the outcome and scored after. See the standing record →

One record of every venue price. Four things we do with it.

PublishNov 5
Calibration IndexMonthly · free to cite · series licensedRead the methodology →
MeasureBy engagement
Market QualityPer series · page, PDFSee the method →
ProveLive now
Reference ReportsSelf-serve · page, PDF, JSONRequest a report →
ScoreBy engagement
VerificationPer engagement · published rulesSee a sample →

Featured ScopeGrizzlies at Trail Blazerssettles 5h agothe last hour →

The Scopes Calibration Index

How well each venue's prices have actually been calibrated against outcomes, by venue, desk, and horizon, published monthly under rules set in advance. First values publish November 5, 2026. See the coverage →

Published before the answer was known.

Every Scopes study is registered with its tests and verdict templates before the outcomes it measures exist. The registration receipts are on each page.

All research →

Scopes is administered by Jon Shields, CFA. The methods are published, the record is open, and every figure on this site can be recomputed by anyone who disagrees with it. About the administrator →

The Week in Review

A free weekly recap of the biggest market-vs-fair-value moves across every desk. Read the latest →

Pricing

The four products are priced per mandate, per report, or per engagement. Access to the record itself:

Free
Read and cite the full record.
$49/mo
Query one desk's data: API, MCP, and export.
$99/mo
All desks, same access.

No card required to read or cite. Cancel anytime. See pricing → · Institutions →