Scopes

The scorekeeperfor prediction markets

Everyone quotes the odds.
We keep score.

Scopes measures how well prediction market odds, across venues, held up as estimates of what actually happened: under rules published in advance, from a record anyone can verify.

Commanders v GiantsKalshi 62.5%Scopes Fair Value 64.5%gap 2.0 ptsas of 4h ago
See today's largest divergences →

conflicts · versioned · append-only · archived · verifiable · last ingest 4h ago

Every flagged divergence carries independent reads, model and human, recorded before the outcome and scored after. See the standing record →

Collecting 243,248 snapshots since July 2026.

451 divergences resolved. Who was right?

When market price and Scopes Fair Value disagreed:

Market right · 273Fair value right · 178
Statistically significant at the 95% level (n = 451) What does this split mean? →Explore the record →

Most resolved flags so far are energy. Other desks are live and accumulating. Full scorecard by desk →

The Scopes Calibration Index

How well each prediction market's prices have actually been calibrated against outcomes, by venue, by desk and by horizon, measured under rules published in advance from a timestamped record. Published monthly by Scopes Reference Data, LLC. The Scopes Fair Value is not scored by the index.

Rates
Kalshi, PolymarketConsultation draft v0.9November 5, 2026Nov 5
Polls
Kalshi, PolymarketConsultation draft v0.9November 5, 2026Nov 5
Sports
KalshiConsultation draft v0.9November 5, 2026Nov 5
Energy
KalshiConsultation draft v0.9November 5, 2026Nov 5
Stocks
KalshiConsultation draft v0.9November 5, 2026Nov 5
Composite
All venuesConsultation draft v0.9November 5, 2026Nov 5

Administered by Scopes Reference Data, LLC under published rules.

Read the methodology · Licensing and use

One record of every venue price. Four things we do with it.

PublishCalibration Index→MeasureMarket Quality→ProveReference Reports→ScoreVerification→

Published before the answer was known.

Every Scopes study is registered with its tests and verdict templates before the outcomes it measures exist. The registration receipts are on each page.

Published
Does context make a model commit?

Given only two probabilities the models abstained; given a public NWS forecast they committed. The effect is on whether a model answers, not on its accuracy.

All research →

Scopes is administered by Jon Shields, CFA. The methods are published, the record is open, and every figure on this site can be recomputed by anyone who disagrees with it. About the administrator →

Pricing

The record is free to read and cite. The four products are priced per mandate, per report, or per engagement; read or query the record yourself from $49 a month.

See pricing → · Institutions →

The Week in Review

A free weekly recap of the biggest market-vs-fair-value moves across every desk. Read the latest →