Scopes

Independent research on prediction markets

How prediction markets price risk, measured.

Scopes studies how venue prices behave against independent fair value, and how Kalshi, Polymarket and the venues we track compare with each other and with how events resolve. Every price is timestamped and every result is published, including the ones where our own benchmark lost.

Research led by Jon Shields, CFA

See the record →Read the research →

Alaska Senate 2026

Republican

Kalshi
28.5%
Polymarket
26.5%
Scopes Fair Value52.0%
as of 28h ago

A 24-point gap. Our fair value, measured independently, parts from the market here. That divergence is what we track.

Same event. Every venue. One independent fair value.

Everyone quotes the odds. We keep score.

The Scopes Fair Value is our independent estimate of the odds; a divergence is where it parts from the market price.

Collecting 487,449 snapshots since July 2026.

629 divergences resolved.

When market price and Scopes Fair Value disagreed:

Market right · 348Fair value right · 281
Statistically significant at the 95% level (binomial test, n = 629) What does this split mean? →See the record →
Methodology

The record holds 892 resolved flags, scored as 629 distinct events. Set aside from scoring: Sports 226, energy 20, stocks 17. How this number is computed →

conflicts · versioned · append-only · archived · verifiable · last ingest 5h ago

Every flagged divergence carries independent reads, model and human, recorded before the outcome and scored after. See the standing record →

Published before the answer was known.

Every Scopes study is registered with its tests and verdict templates before the outcomes it measures exist. The registration receipts are on each page.

Published
Does context make a model commit?

Given only two probabilities the models abstained; given a public NWS forecast they committed. The effect is on whether a model answers, not on its accuracy.

All research →

Scopes is administered by Jon Shields, CFA. The methods are published, the record is open, and every figure on this site can be recomputed by anyone who disagrees with it. About the administrator →

One record of every venue price. Four things we do with it.

One is self-serve today; the rest are available by engagement. Start with Reference Reports.

PublishNov 2
Calibration IndexThe independent benchmark of how well prediction-market prices are calibrated against outcomes.Monthly · free to cite · series licensedRead the methodology →
MeasureBy engagement
Market QualityHow a series behaves: volume, spread, adverse moves, stale quotes, dispersion, and what it cost. Per series.Per series · page, PDFSee the method →
ProveStart hereLive now
Reference ReportsWhat the market was at any moment, with a proof anyone can check.Self-serve · page, PDF, JSONRequest a report →
ScoreBy engagement
VerificationAnyone who publishes a probability, scored on the record under published rules.Per engagement · published rulesSee a sample →

The Scopes Calibration Index

How much better venue prices did than a naive base-rate guess, scored against outcomes by desk and horizon under rules published in advance. The Scopes Fair Value is not scored.

SCI-ALL, H1, trailing

0.445

backfill · July 15 to October 31, 2026

  • Sports0.13990% [0.105, 0.173] · 753 events
  • Energy0.61490% [0.513, 0.694] · 28 events
  • Stocks0.58290% [0.046, 0.615] · 15 events
  • Equal-weight mean of the desks that clear the gate. Desks differ in how predictable their contracts are, so compare each with itself over time, not with each other.

All values and how to read them · Methodology

The Scope: the last hour of a market before it settles, captured minute by minute.

FeaturedRaptors at Clipperssettled 11h agothe last hour →

The Week in Review

A free weekly recap of the biggest market-vs-fair-value moves across every desk. Read the latest →

We keep score, and we publish the ones we get wrong.

Every figure on the record can be recomputed from the timestamped data behind it. That is the whole point.

Open the full record →