Scopes

The scorekeeperfor prediction markets

Everyone quotes the odds.
We keep score.

Scopes measures how well prediction market odds, across venues, held up as estimates of what actually happened: under rules published in advance, from a record anyone can verify.

Across 553 resolved divergences, the market was right 56.1% of the time, the Scopes Fair Value the other 43.9%.

See the record →Today's largest divergences →
Kalshi 74.5%Scopes Fair Value 63.8%gap 10.7 ptsas of 5h ago

Fair value is our independent estimate of the odds; the gap is how far the market sits from it.

conflicts · versioned · append-only · archived · verifiable · last ingest 5h ago

Collecting 311,920 snapshots since July 2026.

553 divergences resolved.

When market price and Scopes Fair Value disagreed:

Market right · 310Fair value right · 243
Statistically significant at the 95% level (n = 553) What does this split mean? →See the record →

Methodology: the record holds 816 resolved flags, scored as 553 distinct events. Set aside from scoring: Sports 226, energy 20, stocks 17.

Every flagged divergence carries independent reads, model and human, recorded before the outcome and scored after. See the standing record →

One record of every venue price. Four things we do with it.

PublishNov 5
Calibration IndexMonthly · API, MCP, CSV · free to citeRead the methodology →
MeasureLive
Market QualityPer series, monthly · page, PDF, dataSee the method →
ProveLive now
Reference ReportsSelf-serve · PDF, JSON, APIRequest a report →
ScoreLive
VerificationPer engagement · published rulesSee a sample →

The Scopes Calibration Index

How well each prediction market's prices have actually been calibrated against outcomes, by venue, by desk and by horizon, measured under rules published in advance from a timestamped record. Published monthly by Scopes Reference Data, LLC. The Scopes Fair Value is not scored by the index.

The first values publish November 5, 2026, scored from the same resolved record above. The index is in public consultation (v0.9) until then; the family it covers is listed below.

Coverage

  • RatesKalshi, Polymarket
  • PollsKalshi, Polymarket
  • SportsKalshi
  • EnergyKalshi
  • StocksKalshi
  • CompositeAll venues

Consultation draft v0.9 · first values November 5, 2026

Administered by Scopes Reference Data, LLC under published rules.

Read the methodology · Licensing and use

Published before the answer was known.

Every Scopes study is registered with its tests and verdict templates before the outcomes it measures exist. The registration receipts are on each page.

Published
Does context make a model commit?

Given only two probabilities the models abstained; given a public NWS forecast they committed. The effect is on whether a model answers, not on its accuracy.

All research →

Scopes is administered by Jon Shields, CFA. The methods are published, the record is open, and every figure on this site can be recomputed by anyone who disagrees with it. About the administrator →

Pricing

The record is free to read and cite. The four products are priced per mandate, per report, or per engagement; self-serve access to query it is a flat monthly rate.

Free
Read and cite the full record.
$49/mo
Query one desk as data: API, MCP, and export.
$99/mo
All desks.
GET /api/v1/divergences?desk=rates
{
  "event": "Fed decision, Oct 2026",
  "kalshi_prob": 0.561,
  "scopes_fair_value": 0.439,
  "scopes_divergence": 0.122,
  "computed_at": "2026-10-17T13:00:00Z"
}

Free to read first; a card only when you query as data, and cancel anytime. See pricing → · Institutions →

The Week in Review

A free weekly recap of the biggest market-vs-fair-value moves across every desk. Read the latest →

The score is public. Read it, cite it, or query it.

Every number on this page can be recomputed from the record: free to read and cite, or queryable as data from $49 a month.

See the record →