Scopes

The scorekeeperfor prediction markets

Everyone quotes the odds.
We keep score.

Scopes is the independent reference layer for probabilistic information—preserving historical market prices, comparing venues, measuring independent estimates, and tracking performance against outcomes.

Across 591 resolved divergences, the market was right 55.5% of the time, the Scopes Fair Value the other 44.5%.

The Scopes Fair Value is our independent estimate of the odds; a divergence is where it parts from the market price.

How this number is computed →

See the record →Today's largest divergences →

conflicts · versioned · append-only · archived · verifiable · last ingest 45 min ago

Live sample

Broncos v CardinalsKalshi 32.5%Scopes Fair Value 34.0%gap 1.5 ptsas of 45 min ago

Featured ScopeRays at Brewerssettles 4h agothe last hour →

Collecting 375,985 snapshots since July 2026.

591 divergences resolved.

When market price and Scopes Fair Value disagreed:

Market right · 328Fair value right · 263
Statistically significant at the 95% level (binomial test, n = 591) What does this split mean? →See the record →

Methodology: the record holds 854 resolved flags, scored as 591 distinct events. Set aside from scoring: Sports 226, energy 20, stocks 17.

Every flagged divergence carries independent reads, model and human, recorded before the outcome and scored after. See the standing record →

One record of every venue price. Four things we do with it.

PublishNov 5
Calibration IndexMonthly · API, MCP, CSV · free to citeRead the methodology →
MeasureLive
Market QualityPer series, monthly · page, PDF, dataSee the method →
ProveLive now
Reference ReportsSelf-serve · PDF, JSON, APIRequest a report →
ScoreLive
VerificationPer engagement · published rulesSee a sample →

The Scopes Calibration Index

How well each venue's prices have actually been calibrated against outcomes — by venue, desk, and horizon — published monthly under rules set in advance. First values publish November 5, 2026. See the coverage →

Published before the answer was known.

Every Scopes study is registered with its tests and verdict templates before the outcomes it measures exist. The registration receipts are on each page.

All research →

Scopes is administered by Jon Shields, CFA. The methods are published, the record is open, and every figure on this site can be recomputed by anyone who disagrees with it. About the administrator →

The Week in Review

A free weekly recap of the biggest market-vs-fair-value moves across every desk. Read the latest →

Pricing

The record is free to read and cite. The four products are priced per mandate, per report, or per engagement; self-serve access to query it is a flat monthly rate.

Free
Read and cite the full record.
$49/mo
Query one desk as data: API, MCP, and export.
$99/mo
All desks.

Free to read first; a card only when you query as data, and cancel anytime. See pricing → · Institutions →