Scopes

The scorekeeperfor prediction markets

Everyone quotes the odds.
We keep score.

Scopes is the independent reference layer for probabilistic information—preserving historical market prices, comparing venues, measuring independent estimates, and tracking performance against outcomes.

Across 608 resolved divergences, the market was right 55.6% of the time, the Scopes Fair Value the other 44.4%.

The Scopes Fair Value is our independent estimate of the odds; a divergence is where it parts from the market price.

How this number is computed →

See the record →Today's largest divergences →

conflicts · versioned · append-only · archived · verifiable · last ingest 4h ago

Live sample

Titans v BengalsKalshi 16.5%Scopes Fair Value 18.9%gap 2.4 ptsas of 4h ago

Featured ScopeTrail Blazers at Lakerssettles 16h agothe last hour →

Collecting 416,522 snapshots since July 2026.

608 divergences resolved.

When market price and Scopes Fair Value disagreed:

Market right · 338Fair value right · 270
Statistically significant at the 95% level (binomial test, n = 608) What does this split mean? →See the record →

Methodology: the record holds 871 resolved flags, scored as 608 distinct events. Set aside from scoring: Sports 226, energy 20, stocks 17.

Every flagged divergence carries independent reads, model and human, recorded before the outcome and scored after. See the standing record →

One record of every venue price. Four things we do with it.

PublishNov 5
Calibration IndexMonthly · free to cite · series licensedRead the methodology →
MeasureBy engagement
Market QualityPer series · page, PDFSee the method →
ProveLive now
Reference ReportsSelf-serve · page, PDF, JSONRequest a report →
ScoreBy engagement
VerificationPer engagement · published rulesSee a sample →

The Scopes Calibration Index

How well each venue's prices have actually been calibrated against outcomes — by venue, desk, and horizon — published monthly under rules set in advance. First values publish November 5, 2026. See the coverage →

Published before the answer was known.

Every Scopes study is registered with its tests and verdict templates before the outcomes it measures exist. The registration receipts are on each page.

Published
Does context make a model commit?

Given only two probabilities the models abstained; given a public NWS forecast they committed. The effect is on whether a model answers, not on its accuracy.

All research →

Scopes is administered by Jon Shields, CFA. The methods are published, the record is open, and every figure on this site can be recomputed by anyone who disagrees with it. About the administrator →

The Week in Review

A free weekly recap of the biggest market-vs-fair-value moves across every desk. Read the latest →

Pricing

The four products are priced per mandate, per report, or per engagement. Access to the record itself:

Free
Read and cite the full record.
$49/mo
Query one desk's data: API, MCP, and export.
$99/mo
All desks, same access.

No card required to read or cite. Cancel anytime. See pricing → · Institutions →